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We can all start stockpiling some bars now, you know.
According to the International Cocoa Organization, the striking craving of people to chocolate will result in the deficiency of the sweet supply up to 2020.
Just next year, the biggest chocolate manufacturers Mars, Inc. and Barry Callebaut estimate that they may be able to sell 7.3 million tons of chocolate – noticeably higher than last year’s estimation by 2.1 percent.
However, this statistic could not be more of help as chocolate consumers munched on cocoa 70,000 metric tons more than the farmers produced.
The Rising Demand
The rising demand, moreover, is due to its popularity in countries like China, which didn’t even favor the product in the first place. Now, they show much interest in the sweet treat that they have doubled already their chocolate sales in the last 10 years.
Reports also say that chocolate outfits are investing on megahit in Asia. This is evident with Hershey Co. constructing a $250 million plant in Malaysia.
Accordingly, the demand of many in dark chocolate, which could only mean of using a lot of cocoa in just a single bar, brought a 24 percent price hike of cocoa some time in 2013.
The Dependence on Rain in Africa
Augmenting also to the problem is the dependence of West African countries like Ghana and the Ivory Coast to rain, which is mainly essential to flourish their cocoa production – which contributes 70 percent of world’s cocoa supply.
This 2014, impending droughts resulted in lesser harvests of cocoa which may result in 100,000 metric ton deficit.
Owners of the Green Hand
In a farmer’s perspective, because they are paid with every harvests, it’s still paying for the poor crop for earlier harvests. And although they are going to receive more for the next harvests, they will also struggle for buying necessary implements to gro quality cocoa, such as pesticides.
Lastly, 30 to 40 percent of cocoa production is taken away by a killing fungus, as some farmers have witnessed, which they called frosty pod. Because of this, many of them already resorted in planting more profitable crops, like rubber.
Global Chocolate Shortage
All of these may result in an approximated 2 million metric ton of chocolate shortage by 2030 as the cocoa industry continuous to hold. Chances are that we may not be able to enjoy anymore a mug of hot cocoa, some chocolate chip cookie, or even just a chip out of a bar.
This time it’s obviously abundant. But in the coming times, circumstances may tell that the sweet treat may no longer touch our tongues.
